FLOWING WISDOM: WEEK 3 MONEY GUIDE

2018 NFL OVERALL: 6/13

THE GATES GAME: 2/2

EMOTIONAL STATUS: COMPLICATED

WEEK 3 CONFIDENCE: VERY AVERAGE

Review:

Chargers (-7) v Bills $$

Eagles (-3) v Bucs X

Saints (-8.5) v Browns X

Chiefs (+5) v Steelers $$

Seahawks (+190) v Bears X

Vikings (+1) v Packers $$ GG

Patriots (-3) v Jaguars XX

What a load of crap. Saints cant even get a clear cut win versus Hugh F'ing Jackson? Blake Borltes absolutely handling Tom Brady in a semi-important week 2 game? WHO THE HELL DOES TAMPA BAY THINK THEY ARE? And Lastly I just dont know how Russell Wilson can lose to a QB who hasn't even thrown as many touchdowns as he has games in the NFL... We were believers in the Eagles and Saints, yet they have cost us money 2 weeks in a row. We thought we hated the Bucs, but they have literally been the most impressive team in the NFL minus KC. Lines are being drawn in the sand, and we now have to fish them out. Anytime you can get a former Super Bowl Champ at +190 against a team like Chicago, you take it. Thats a good bet that over time pays out very well. All the rest we were just wrong, although we just shouldn't have been. I mentioned below last weeks column I thought Washington got to much respect in the line against Indy and it turned out to be true. Still won money getting the early +1 action on the Vikings to stay up with the Gates Game, but we still are looking for a sweep city week and "I feel it coooooming in the aiiiiiiiiir toniiiiiiight,,, oh loooooooord".

Week 3 presents a front where Vegas is making us pay big for winners, meaning the favorites are starting to be HEAVY point favorites now that the dust is starting to settle in the NFL. I dont love these lines, but just like in golf, sometimes you dont have it on the range but then you strut onto the course and become Tiger. Lets go full Tiger in week 3, and its also Birthday week so lets gooooo.

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GM 1: COLTS (+6/+100_+145) v EAGLES (-6/-120_-270)

Andrew Luck has been pretty good threw 2 weeks. He has thrown 4 TD to 3 INT averaging 250 passing ypg and is completing a very good 71.4% of his throws albeit having career lows in yards per att and catch. So although we thought his arm fell off and he would now fulfill his destiny as a one handed lumberjack, that narrative appears to be haulted and Luck regains his status as a top 5 NFL QB. Wentz has been named the starter for week 3, last we saw him King Ginger was leading the NFL in TD's on his way to being the first red haired MVP ever (probably a fact). Eagles rank 8th in average pts/per/gm on defensive coughing up 19.5 so far, with Indy settling in at 21.5 which is tied for 14th. Now in points scored the Eagles haven't been great scoring 19.5 per game (T-24th) with the Colts slightly ahead at 22 (18th).

A defense that made the Vikings shutter and stunted the Pats only months ago is now somehow mediocre to poor? Is it actually a Super Bowl Hangover? Is this a sign the Capitals wont win a game in 18-19? Does Wentz make a difference or is it more so the team in general? Indy has lost to a good Bengals team and put up a double digit W vs a solid R-Words unit. Meanwhile Phili squeaked out a bad win on opening night at home vs Atlanta and lost to a you dont even belong Buccaneers team by a score. Neither squad can run the ball, both bottom 11 in the league, meanwhile the Eagles are giving up 301 yards per game in the air (28th) with the Colts a respectable 249 (17th). By the numbers, you could make the case Indy should be the favorites. But with the Eagles run last year coupled with a Wentz return Bookies and Vegas alike are still showing respect to the Eagles even thought they are 0-2 ATS and just look off so far this season. If you wanna make some money I dont think The Moneyline is a bad bet, but for a winner ill take the points.

THE BET: COLTS +6 (+100)

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GM 2: BRONCOS (+4.5/-100_+175) v RAVENS (-4.5/-110_-215) **GATES GAME**

Last week all my picks stood out to me like a drive threw menu at 2:17 am, I saw it and immediately knew what I wanted. This week took some research on all my picks- besides this game. Two close games so far for the Broncos against tough opponents, winning both by a combined 4 points. They are in the top half of the league in every important stat, and currently sit 4th in total yards and second in rushing. Good rushing teams= consistency. The Vikes with Ponder, or Gus Ferrote, T-Jack, Brad Johnson, Favre 3.0, even Joe Webb- sense we had AP and a defense it just didnt matter. The Vikings always played close games by moving the ball, getting either FG's or TD's and winning more than they lost. Broncos are in a similar situation with a average NFL QB (not a bad thing) DT who is one of the best WR of the 2010 era, Sanders is a weapon, and Lindsay (7th round pick who is now top 5 in the league in rushing- huh?) and Freeman create a very good duo in the backfield, this offense has serious talent. Top 3 on the list of teams we say in week 17 "How did we not see the Broncos winning 11 games this year?".

Baltimore blew out Buffalo, congrats, and lost by 1 to a seemingly good Bengals team. The Bills game has the team stats out of wack, but the thing I dont like is they haven't been able to run the ball. Alex Collins is having a slow start and we've seen a lot of Buck Allen dump offs already in 18'. The thing is, on offense who scares you on this Ravens team? Crabtree? John Brown? Willie Snead? I didnt think so. The defense has some playmakers: CJ Mosley has been a great 1st round pick from Bama playing ILB- dipped back in the Saban well last year for Roll Tide CB Marlon Humphrey- Weddle is a veteran safety and Suggs is still curling more than any NFL player. But the Bronsos bring the heat with 3rd overall pick Bradley Chubb, NFL sack leader Von Miller, CB extrodinare Chris Harris, big boy Derek Wolfe, and speedy LB Brandon Marshall.

I think this is a statement game for Denver- after this week people will look at this team differently. We will beforehand..

THE BET: BRONCOS +175

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GM 3: TEXANS (-6/-110_-260) v GIANTS (+6/-110_+210)

In what turned out to be a dumpster fire of a game the Giants could not have looked worse against a poor Dallas team. The G men are 28th in total yards, 24th in passing, 28th in rushing, and sit 3rd worst in points scored. NOT GOOD>

Houston in those same categories- 13th in total yards- 21st in passing- 1st in rushing but only 26th in total points (I see some regression to the norm coming soon).

Heres the thing: The best part of Houston is there front 7, the Giants biggest problem is protecting a statue QB behind center.

Love that Houston is running the ball, which is bizarre because they came into the year having a bottom 3 O-line ranking by PFF projections. PFF might not be so stupid though when you look at the pass blocking (which has be brutal) plus a slow start from Showtime Watson (59 comp%- 486 yards- 3 TD- 2 INT- 13 run att- 84 yards). But in week 3 Heisman Deshaun will turn it around against a forgiving Giants Secondary. I am slightly concerned that Saquon could straight up win the Giants a game, but again I think the power in the LB core (Clowney & Mercilus) plus the line (Watt & Covinton) ought to keep him in check.

I think Houston shows folks why they were a AFC South favorite coming into the year and start rolling on all 3 phases of the game in week 3.

THE BET: TEXANS -6

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GM 4: VIKINGS (-17/-105_-1490) v BILLS (+17.5/-115_+895)

The Buffalo Bills have a -55 point differential threw 2 weeks. Their best player Lesean McCoy is out with a cracked rib and Josh Alen is still the QB.

You cant give them enough points. 0-2 ATS and about to be 0-3.

Im not wasting carpel tunnel on this one.

THE BET: VIKINGS -17

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GM 5: CHIEFS (-7/-110_-285) v 49ERS (+7/-110_+230)

Although the Eagles and Saints have been costing us money, the Chiefs have been a nice cash cow threw 2 weeks.

Mahomes has 10 TD in 2 weeks of play, Tyreek Hill managed a 4th qurter TD to show you he can strike at anytime, Travis Kelce went OFF and even Sammy Watkins had a nice day in yellow and red (and Kareem Hunt only has 124 yards on 34 att so far- so they can still be EVEN BETTER). 2-0 is there record ATS and overall, and its a hot team that could crash, or they could keep on rolling. With the best weapons on offense in the NFL, and a defense who bent but didn't break against a top offense in PIT, this team might just have it all. The Chiefs are 1st in points and 6th in yards- this is a team you ride until they show you ya cant.

The Niners, in a bizzare twist, sit 3rd in the NFL for rushing yards (something they were suppose to be horrible at entering the year) while being bottom half of the NFL in every other major offensive category. They will get ILB Reuben Foster (Roll Tide) back off the suspension list and Marquis Goodwin, WR1 for SF, is questionable to play in week 3. After a week 1 L to Mini the 49ers escaped Matthew Stafford's 4th quarter heroics to capture a solid 30-27 win last time out.

This is screaming like a trap game.. And although we might be falling into that trap- at the same time if we look at these teams objectively KC is just better. This line should really be in the -5 range, and although my betting instincts would say bet the inconsistency, my heart wants to believe the Chiefs go 16-0 and beat everyone by 16. I know the Chiefs can give more on defense to, if they figure out that side of the ball they will contend for the #1 seed in the NFL.

** Interesting side note: KC was 5th last year is ATS % covering 59% of the time. This is important because, given this stat, the public (the odds) typically underrate this team. Meaning, as opposed to Dallas when they are good, itll take people longer than ussual to adjust to goodness that is Chiefs football.**

THE BET: CHIEFS -7

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GM 6: PATRIOTS (-7/-115_-280) v LIONS (+7/-105_+230)

Pats lost us money last week which was not fun, and they looked pretty bad against the team they beat in the AFC Championship game months ago. BUT, THE GOOD THING IS, the Patriots are playing a former Patriots coach.

BILL BELICHEK EATS HIS FORMER COACHES UP LIKE A FAT ITALIANO EAST UP GABAGOOL.

Matt Patricia is having a miserable start, costing me money week 1 by falling to THE JETS 17-48 on Monday night, then week 2 (not costing me money) 27-30 L vs The Chin in Sin Frin. Seriously, if Sam Darnold and the Jets can beat them by 30 do we really think Tom Tuddys and President Bill wont be able to mop up the floor with them? They will.

Fun fact: New England was the #2 team ATS in 2017 covering 63.2% of the time (7/12) the only team better was Phili. EVEN BETTER, in 2016 they were #1 ATS covering a STAGGERING 84.2% of the time. ON TOP OF THAT, they have been atleast 50% ATS sense 2010.. Odds are if you bet the Pats, you will be happy you did.

This is a "lets use our brains not our numbers" type of game. Dont over think it.

THE BET: PATRIOTS -7

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OTHERS I LIKE

Steelers -1 vs Bucs (if you saw this line week 1.... I mean... PIT has to come back at some point this year right?)

Browns -3.5 v Jets (Browns have better talent across the board, that simple)

Cardinals +6.5 v Bears (I said I was a believer, and if they cant get it going against Chicago, im screwed. CHIPS IN THE MIDDLE)

CHEERS BOYS