FLOWING MONEY GUIDE: WEEK 4

2018 NFL W/L: 8/19

THE GATES GAME: 2/3

EMOTIONAL STATUS: LUCKY

WEEK 4 CONFIDENCE: RELUCTANTLY HIGH

REVIEW:

COLTS +6 v EAGLES-$

BRONCOS +4.5 v RAVENS-X

TEXANS -6 v GIANTS-X

VIKINGS -17.5 v BILLS-X

CHIEFS -7 v 49ERS-$

PATRIOTS -7 v LIONS-X

What a disappointing week, but im feeling "Lucky" because although I doubled down on Moneyline bets for both the Colts and Broncos I FORGOT TO SHARE THE BEST BET OF THE WEEK which was the Rams v Chargers over (hope you saw it to), which was a winner. Also, in typical investing form, I convinced myself that the Steelers just could not loose to Tampa (what world would we be living in then?) and that the over was also a good way to throw all my chips into the middle- thank god for the river card (MNF). Im not going to try to explain how the Ravens can beat the Bills by 40 and yet the far superior Vikings loose by 30.. I cant fathom why New England has looked this poor threw 3 weeks, that team literally NEEDS Josh Gordon. But if JG actually gets on track, feels good and is off the drugs, can you imagine a Gronk Jordon duo with Tom? WATCH OUT. Chiefs keep covering and as youll see we are hitting them until they make us regret it which will be never. Texans didnt come back to 2017 Deshaun Watson form against the Giants, I am now officially skeptical of that team until proven otherwise. The biggest bummer was Denver, really thought Case and company would get up for that game but they did the opposite. Also, I went 4/5 in CFB (not big deal) so I was yet again net positive somehow.

But now onto week 4, and I laid all my bets down Monday Night (good sign). Like what the tea leaves are showing us here gentleman (and ladies). So lets hang em, bang em, and praise EM!

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GM 1: 1-1-1 VIKINGS (+7.5/-105_+230) & 3-1 RAMS (-7.5/-115_-280)

If I were to have shown you this line week 1, it would have seemed absurd. Now, in week 4, the effect of the NOW (Rams 3-0/Vikings 1-1-1) has everyone all hot and bothered about the Rams. WELL GUESS WHAT, THE VIKINGS ARE GOOD TO. The whole Everson Griffin saga is one of the more perplexing stories ive seen in awhile (hope hes ok) and we also need Dalvin to be healthy along with our O-Line, but this team is far to talented to fall off. The Rams have played a pretty easy schedule (@Oakland-Arizona-LAC) which has made there counting numbers look real impressive so far this year (440 yards per game). Threw the air these teams look almost identical, Vikings 1 more TD, Kirk 30 more attempts (can we get some balance please) and average the exactly same amount of yards per game so far (305.7). The difference has been rushing, The Rams averaging 133.7 yards rushing per game while the Vikings sit with a mere 66. Four Rams rushing TD's to the Vikings zero from the RB position..

Also to note, last year we did beat these guys 24-7. Pretty dominating performance and although the Rams were big winners in Free Agency this past summer, arguably their two best gets, Aquib Talib and Marcus Peters, left last weeks game and will likely either not play or atleast be below 100%. That bodes well for Diggs and Thielen along with our whole offense. Not many teams can score with this 2.0 showtime LA squad, but the team from the north is more than capable of making it happen. Captain Kirk rescues the crew from planet Uranus and the Purple and Gold get back on track.

THE BET: VIKINGS +6.5

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GM 2: 2-1 BENGALS (+6/-105_+210) v 1-2 FALCONS (-6/-115_-260)

This is a really interesting game. By the numbers, these teams are almost identical. The Falcons offense has a slim edge over the Bengals, while Cinci's defense has been slightly better than ATL's. Defensive yards allowed- Bengals 394 Falcons 400, Points per game allowed Bengals coughing up 25.7 with the Falcons at 28.3, The Bengals are putting up 29.7 ppg with the Falcons at 26.7, Bengals run for 92 yards a game while the Falcons gain 97, and lastly the Bengals throw for 274 per while the Falcons put up on average 285.

WOW.

This is yet again a game in which both team are extremely close and for some reason odds makers are giving the home team a HUGE edge in spread points. A big factor will be Joe Mixon, who had a knee scope procedure last week and is questionable to return in week 4. The Bengals have two 11 point wins (34-23 to both the Colts and Ravens) while having one loss of 10 (last week @ Carolina). The Falcons meanwhile sit last in the NFC South, having played the Eagles (12-18 L) Panthers (31-24 W) and the Saints (37-43 L). I dont even really like this game frankly, but it feels like the type of contest where the Falcons just dont show up and a grittier tougher Bengals team prevails on the road. Im betting Andy Dalton, im sure to regret this.

THE BET: BENGALS +6

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GM 3: 1-2 LIONS (+3/-115_+130)& 1-2 COWBOYS (-3/-105_-160)

The Lions showed me something last week about winning, and they have shown us all season that they actually have a pretty scary offense as well.

DETROIT RECEIVERS:

Golladay: 19 rec-256 yards-2 TD- 13.5 avg

Tate:::::::: 20 rec-257 yards-1 TD- 12.9 avg

Jones::::: 12 rec- 177 yards-2 TD- 14.8 avg

DALLAS RECEIVERS

Beasley:::::: 12 rec- 132 yards- 0 TD- 11 avg

Thompson: 9 rec- 83 yards- 0 TD- 9.2 avg

Austin:::::::: 5 rec- 81 yards- 2 TD- 16.2 avg

RB's

DET- Johnson: 29 att- 161 yards- 0 TD- 5.6 avg

DAL- Elliot: 48 att- 274 yards- 2 TD- 5.7 avg

QB's

DET- Stafford: 88/135 895 yards 6 TD- 5 INT

DAL- Prescott: 54/88 498 yards 2 TD- 2 INT

Both teams are 1-2, but I think Detroit is in a far better place. You probably heard, but Kerryon Johnson (rookie RB from Auburn) was the first Detroit RB to run for 100 yards in a game fro Detroit sense the Civil War.

More charts:

Points per game

Detroit: 23.3

Dallas: 13.7

Points given up per game

Detroit: 29.3

Dallas: 17.7

BUT, Dallas is most likely without there best defensive player, MLB Sean Lee (surprise). I think the Lions will score enough to atleast cover, if not win. Plus if Stafford can be more careful with the rock (currently leading the NFL with those 5 picks) this is a much "safer" team going forward. The WR core is just to good, Lions will prevail.

THE BET: LIONS +3

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GM 4: 2-1 JAGUARS (-7.5/-110_ -385) v 1-2 JETS (+7.5/-110_ +300)

The Jags are prone to, like all teams, a dumpster fire performance like last week losing 6-9 to the Blaine Marriota Titans. Meanwhile following a week 1 JESUS HAS RISEN TODAY AND HIS NAME IS SAM DARNOLD, Jets scorching hot takes have been chilling down in the frig for two weeks losing to Miami (12-20) and the CLEVLAND (17-21).

Bottom line, Darnold hasn't played a defense like this Jacksonville unit and I just dont think it'll be pretty.

Sense week 1:

Darnold: 1 TD- 4 INT 5 sacks 40/72 (55% comp) 503 Yards

NOT GOOD ENOUGH SAM.

Overall Sir USC has more picks (5) than six (3), more sacks (7) than rushing yards (0) and a set of receivers equal to my former JV basketball team.

DEFENSE

Jags D this Year Jets D this year

#2 in points against #10 in points against

#4 in yards against #8 in yards against

#7 in 3rd down % #14 in 3rd down %

The Jets defense under Todd Bowles is certainly formidable, but The Jags (against better offenses) still have the edge. I think Bortles experience keeps him on a leash this game, if he doesn't lose it the Jags will win it. HA, how about that. We dont need Patriots Bortles, just a nice 21-32/265/2-1 line and well be home safe and victorious. Also Fournette is most likely back from injury so that bodes well for the AFC powerhouse Jaguars. Again, its the Fu***** Jets guys, lets not over think this one.

THE BET: JAGUARS -7.5 (1st favorite picked, wow)

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GM 5: 1-1-1 BROWNS (+2.5/-105_ +120) & 0-3 RAIDERS (-2.5/-115_-140)

Houston we have an problem, the Browns pass the eye test better than Jon Grudens Raiders. Also, enter Baker Mayfield, my favorite QB in this past draft. This dude is ulta-competitive while also possessing the skills to garner a #1 draft selection. Baker single handedly changes the outlook of this team both literally and figuratively (Add Callaway- and start Njoku in fantasy). On the flip side, Oakland has the upper hand on Cleveland in every offensive category besides rushing yards by a long shot, but again, thats the old Browns now that Mayfield is in the fold. But you do have to wonder about the quality of weapons they have now with the Gordon release- your bringing to battle Landry (great) Hyde (3.3 ypc so far in 18') Callaway (unproven talented rookie) Njoku (17' 29th pick yet to do anything) Higgins (who?)... so well see how good Baker can make this unit because although Tyrod is not as good- hes still had some good quarterbacking in his day that did not come translate to the Browns.

For the Raiders, and this isnt breaking news, they have noone besides Bruce Irvin who even has a chance of getting to the quarterback. On offense I dont hate this team at all, underrated offensive line, Derek Carr can win you a game with his play (or lose it), and Marshawn Lynch has been good enough (48-170-3 TD 3.5 ypc). Plus the Receivers, albeit Amari Cooper and a lack of TD's, have been solid in 18'.

Raiders Wide-Outs

Jared Cook- 18-260-0TD 14.4 ypr

Jordy Nelson- 11-226-1 TD- 20.5 ypr

Amari Cooper- 13-142- O TD- 10.9 ypr

In its simplest form, just look at the records. Given- the Raiders have played the Rams-Denver- Miami which is a touch start. BUT THE BROWN HAVE TO playing Pittsburgh- New Orleans- Jets. I think Bakermania is coming and im hoping on the bandwagon right now (P.S. Hes now the Rookie MVP favorite at +150 (SAQUON +400!!))

THE BET: BROWNS +2.5

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GM 6: 1-2 CHARGER (-10.5/ -120_ -495) v 1-2 49ERS (+10.5/+100_ +370)

Not worth the research because without Jimmy Chin (ill miss that this year) throw the numbers out the window. CJ Bet-hard is going to start...... The Chargers offense will score 30 points anddddddd idk how the Niners will even score 17.

THE BET: CHARGERS -10.5

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GM 7: 2-1 SAINTS (-3.5/-120_ -185) v 1-2 GIANTS (+3.5/+100_ +155)

THE GATES GAME

Wanna know why the Saints came out slow this year? SO THEY COULD COOK US UP A LINE LIKE THIS. My week 4 montra- if we saw this spread week 1 what would we think? Ill tell you what im thinking, that we can retire early, VERY early.

Week 4 is also a great chart week- so more charts

POINTS SCORES:

SAINTS- 104 (2ND)

GIANTS- 55 (27TH)

PASSING YPG:

SAINTS- 428 (4TH)

GIANTS- 319 (24TH)

RUSHING YPG:

SAINTS- 82.7 (28TH)

GIANTS- 87.7 (25TH)

The point differential is certainly staggering when you think about the legitimate talent on the Giants offense (Saquon, Odell). But as we see the Saints are far superior at there strength comparatively against the Giants (passing), plus the Saints weakness (rushing) is also equaled by the Blue Men- doesn't look promising for new coach Pat Shurmur.

Defense, however, is a slightly different story.

POINTS ALLOWED

SAINTS- 103 (32ND)

GIANTS- 62 (13TH)

YARDS GIVEN UP PER/GM

SAINTS- 421 (30TH)

GIANTS- 343 (15TH)

Saints have played- Tampa- Clevland- Atlanta

Giants have played- Jacksonville- Dallas- Houston

They Giants defense has been ok and it should be. They have awesome linebackers in Alec Ogletree and Olivier Vernon- plus a secondary that includes Landon Collins-(former 1st round pick) Eli Apple- and Janoris Jenkins. But the D-line is bad, and if you cant get pressure on D-Breezy, I dont care how good your secondary is because Drew will tear it up. Saints score a lot and the Giants dont get as much.

THE BET: SAINTS -3.5

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GM 8: 3-0 CHIEFS (-4.5/-115_ -230) & 2-1 BRONCOS (+4.5/-105_ +185)

Chiefs are 3-0 ATS and I have invested every. single. time. and I wont stop! Last week a lot of betters were saying the 49ers were a trap game, that they gave them to many points (which I agreed with), but we didn't care because we knew Mahom(ies) would take care of the boys (and ladies if they are investing) and he did. Broncos have a very sour taste in my mouth after I bet their spread and moneyline losing both. This is what makes 0 sense, how can they be 4 point dogs to the Ravens and then to the Chiefs in back-to-back weeks? Chiefs are far superior with there QB having more than 4x the amount of touchdowns as Case.

The difference is obviously defense where the Chiefs rank last. They are giving up 130 more total yards per game (474) than the Broncos (340)- 100 more in the air (362-262) and 34 more yards on the ground (111-77).

But I dont care as much about that because its half, the Chiefs defense is brutal, and half, I mean if we put up 600 yards your probably gunna get 450 (game flow).

2018 schedule so far:

CHIEFS

@ LA Chargers 38-28 W

@ Pittsburgh 42-37 W

v San Francisco 38-27 W

BRONCOS

v Seattle 27-22 W

v Oakland 20-19 W

@ Baltimore 14-27 L

3 Things:

1st- Chiefs have covered 4.5 point every single game so far, and every team is better (except chin-less 49ers) than the Broncos.

2nd- The Ponnies squeaked out 2 wins at home against bad/average teams then got beat badly on the road against a worthy opponent.

3rd- Which team has Patrick Mahomes? Ohhhh the Chiefs? Ya ok IM PICKING THAT TEAM.

THE BET: CHIEFS -4.5

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OVER/UNDERS

VIKINGS-RAMS (O/U 49)

UNDER- This under would be 2-1 for both the Vikings and Rams so far this season. Thursday night game, two good defenses, THURSDAY NIGHT GAME- Take the under.

** Thursday Night Scores so far:

ATL-12 PHI-18

BAL- 23 CIN- 34

CLE- 21 NYJ- 17

JETS-JAGUARS (O/U 38.5)

OVER- This is just so low, like extremely low. If you want to play the odds, this one is your bet.

SAINTS- GIANTS (O/U 50.5)

OVER- As mentioned above, the Saints are second in points scored and are first in points against. So ya, this smells like a nice over shootout.

--May the odds be ever in your favor--