FLOWING MONEY GUIDE: WEEK 5

2018 NFL W/L: 13/27

THE GATES GAME: 3/4

EMOTIONAL STATUS: SLIGHTLY CHEATED

WEEK 5 CONFIDENCE: CHECK BACK

OVER/UNDERS: 2/3

REVIEW:

VIKINGS (+7.5) & RAMS-$

BENGALS (+6) v FALCONS-$

LIONS (+3) & COWBOYS-$

JAGUARS (-7.5) v JETS-$

BROWNS (+120) & RAIDERS-X

CHARGERS (-10.5) v 49ERS-X

SAINTS (-3.5) v GIANTS-$ (GATES GAME)

CHIEFS (-4.5) & BRONCOS-X

OVER/UNDERS

RAMS/VIKINGS UNDER-X

JETS/JAGUARS OVER-$

SAINTS/GIANTS OVER-$

We were so close. Chargers up 10 in the 4th, and they miss 9 points in FG's.. Cleveland up 8 WITH THE BALL and a minute and a half on the clock..... Chiefs could have pulled away after both turnovers.... But instead we go 5/8- which we will take any week but man it could have been perfect. Tampa Bay blew a 6 team teaser that was on its way to covering EASILY, but besides that game we really saw a lot of contests in which things happened that should have. Now that we are currently sitting on the first quarter of the season mark- lets look at a couple teams ATS numbers and see who we should target for the next half.

**Vegas.com/Insiders** reference for ATS numbers. I use MyBookie.ag for my spreads and moneylines, so a slight bit of differentiation.

Chiefs: 4-0 ATS (MyBookie 3-1)- This is a team we have bet all year and have been (for the most part) successful. After watching "Showtime" Mahomes vs Denver I have more confidence than ever in his ability to make plays and win games. With 195 yards outside the pocket Monday Night, which set an NFL record, he truly showed he can do whatever it takes to win games by being mobile on money downs. He makes things happen, and when your a gambler your looking for players who in the face of adversity have the skill set to get out of it. Love them the rest of the year, bet them until the end and you will make money. (Season Tickets)

RAMS: 3-0-1 ATS- They are amazing. Watched them first hand against the Vikings and with the combination of play-makers on offense and a stacked defense, I will be betting them every week and coming out on top come November. (Season Tickets)

Bears: 3-1 ATS- Extremely bummed I didn't see this coming, but im a believer now. Between Howard, Cohen, Robinson, Burton, and Gabriel Mitchell Trubisky just needs a heart beat to score 20+ points with that roster of talent. Also count a top 5 defense so far in 18' and I love this team in the second quarter of the season, but im not getting season tickets yet. (Investing cautiously)

Buffalo: 1-3 ATS- I dont know why they came out so angry against the Vikings, but every other game hasnt been close. Feel secure betting against the Bills every wee and you will come out a winner. (Season Tickets anything vs Buf)

GB @ MN Both 2-2 ATS- That ATS # is a little dodgy because both these teams have played games extremely close to the spread so different bookies will have a different result ATS. Regardless I like both these teams going forward and frankly dont mind the slow start which should buy us and extra 1-3 points the next couple of weeks. Believe before everyone else does, thats the moto.

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GM 1: 4-0 RAMS (-7.5/-115_-340) at 2-2 SEAHAWKS (+7.5/-105_+270)

Rams Point differential- +73

Seahawks Point Differential- +4

The Rams have been an absolute wagon so far in 2018. What a team- Cooper Cupp had his coming out party Thursday as Thielen 2.0, Cooks is having a career year with JARED GOFF as his QB (after playing for Brees & Brady), and the defense has given up the 6th least amount of points in the league (while being 2nd in points scored on offense).

When these teams played last year it was a 42-7 thumping in the Rams favor. LA has put up atleast 33 points every game this season and are giving up only 16.75 on average per game. It really is a special team, they have so many elite play-makers on both sides of that ball that you are going to have some mismatches when facing them no matter what.

Seattle is on a two game W streak, but, it is a fraudulent streak. The wins have been against Dallas and Arizona by a combined 14 points... not good enough.. Russell has only thrown 7 TD in 4 games (compared to Goffs 11) after leading the league last season. This team has 3 pretty talented backs starting with 2018' 1st round pick Rashad Penny, who for whatever reason cant get it together with a job chomping at the bit. Mike Davis (former S Carolina) ran something like 20 for 100 in fill in duty for the inconsistent Chris Carson last week. So what we really mean is we have no idea who is going to get the ball, although coaches are leading us to Carson. On defense they are in deep trouble with safety Earl Thomas getting carted off the field last week (and also hating his team, literally). The 2 handed Griffin brother (Shaquill) is top 5 in the NFL in picks (2). And besides for the Griffins (Shaquem, now starting due to injury & performance) Barkevious Mingo (former #6 pick from LSU), and Bobby Wagner when he plays you wouldn't recognize this former 3X consecutive (5 total) #1 defense of the year.

Getting Doug Baldwin back at WR is a big get for the Seahawks offense but it wont be enough. The Rams are to good and I think they cover a score in the first half.

THE BET: RAMS -7.5

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GM 2: 3-1 RAVENS (-3/+100_-150) & 1-2-1 BROWNS (+3/-120_+150)

What a heartbreaking loss for the Flow Money Guide picks last week via the Browns. Up 8 with the ball and what 2ish minutes on the clock AND THEY LOSE IN OT. But.. im over it.. mhm..... IM OVER IT OK

How about this- Joe Flacco #4 currently in QB attempts- which actually is expected considering he was 7th in attempts last season and 2nd the year before (I feel like this isn't common knowledge to most people). But he hasn't been able to turn that into points being 18th 2 season ago in Touchdowns (20) and 22nd last season (18).

Joey winning his Ravens games.. hmmm. Bet Ravens fans wish they could have seen this a little sooner after that Super Bowl payday. None of there running backs are even averaging above 3.5 ypc (which Alex Collins sits at, Javorius Allen 2.4)- its been all Flacco. His receivers are players whom people always thought were talented, but had other bodies ahead of them who clogged their breakout ability. Jon Brown in Arizona never got a chance with Larry Legend as the possession guy, Floyd as the deep ball target for years and the Cards always hoping JJ Nelson could finally catch a ball. For Willie Snead it was Brandon Cooks who garnered the #1 receiver work load, then guys like Benjamin Freeking Watson and Brandon Coleman seemingly getting snaps and targets over the speedy Snead. Now in Baltimore, alongside Michael Crabtree, they create a scenario where someone is always getting open for throw it up Joe.

But the defense has been incredible- #2 in yards against (275) #4 in passing yards against (193) and #5 in rushing yards against (82.5). They are the only team to be top 5 in all three categories. STAT THAT.

For the Browns they showed us that with Mayfield under center they can put up some points. His team scored a whopping 42 of them- his line read: 21/41 (ehh) 295 yards (nice) 2TD-2INT (mehh) while also adding 4 runs for 10 yards. Problem is they let the RRRRRRRAIDAS score 45...

Hugh Jackson compared to John Harbou is like David Kahn to Bob Marks... Its just not close, I think the Ravens as a team cover and the coach battle makes it a double digit win.

THE BETS: RAVENS -3

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GM 3: 1-3 TEXANS (-3/-120_-170) v 2-2 COWBOYS (+3/+100_+145)

Both teams 1-3 ATS which is cause for concern, but someone has to cover right? The Texans are 1-3 but they started the year @Pats-@Ten-vNYG-@Indy- you would hope to start off better but its not crazy to see them 1-3. Dallas actually has a good win over a scary Detroit team and also handled business versus the rival Giants.

Last year Watson in 6 starts averaged close to 3 touchdowns a game, while this year he isnt even averaging 2. Fuller and Hopkins have both been a little banged up, but if this O-line can just get it together this is a second half team I am very high on.

Even though the Cowboys are .500- they are averaging the 4th least amount of points per game in the NFL. On the plus side they do have Zeke Elliot- who casually went 25-152-1 TD (also a receiving TD) last week up against Detroit. If Dak can just be good enough and not turn the ball over this is a team that can certainly surprise in spots. They are Americas team for a reason...

For the Cowboys Demarcus Lawrence is backing up what was a huge turnaround season last year (14.5 sacks placed 3rd in the NFL) by currently sitting 1st in sacks owning 5.5 of them so far. As a whole the defense has been this teams calling card so far, being top 10 in both points against and yards given up. Dallas has been better than I thought they would be, but still, its a team that struggles to score going up against an offense I really like the rest of the season. Cowboys have yet to cover on the road in 18' and I dont see why it starts now

THE BET: TEXANS -3

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GM 4: 2-2 BRONCOS (PK/-110) at 1-3 JETS (PK/-110)

Last week we couldn't believe one of last years AFC Championship teams was only favored by a score and we ran with it and won. This week the gods are giving us a pick em against the jets?? WE ALWAYS PICK EM AGAINST THE JETS.

Now heres the things, disregarding the records the Jets actually have an even 89 pf 89 pa point differential, while the Broncos are in the red having 84 pf and 97 pa. But, we dont care.

Darnold still has more picks (5) than six (4). The Broncos average 90 more yards on offense and only cough up about 8 more yards on D. New York has played possibly the easiest schedule all year: @DET 48-7 W// vMIA 12-20 L// @CLE 17-21 L// @JAX 12-31 L. Meanwhile Denver has had to play the likes of KC and Baltimore while beating out Oakland and Seattle in the opening two weeks of the season.

Between the explosive Lindsay (undrafted local Colorado kid) and the thumping Freeman (Top 10 in almost any NCAA RB category) this is a team that can control the game both on the ground and threw the air. You saw it against the Chiefs brutal defense last week, they almost won that game by just picking up 1st downs on the ground all game long. Lindsay is averaging 5.9 ypc on 45 att while Freeman is at 5 having pushed the rock 44 times. As a team they are averaging 5.6 (which is amazing). The Jets are middle of the pack against the run so if Denver gets up I just dont see them giving back the lead.

Denver is only 1-3 ATS with the Jets not covering sense week 1. Bottom line Denver has more talent on both offense and defense than the Jets, and I think Denver is playing for a legit chance at a Wild Card the rest of the way while New York, and there season, is already over.

THE BET: BRONCOS PK

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GM 5: 1-2-1 VIKINGS (+3/-105_+135) v 2-2 EAGLES (-3/-115_-160)

The Vikes have cost me some freeking money this year but im sticking with them.

Lets dive into the 1st week of Carson Wentz (whom they unleashed to the wolves). Red Man completed 33 of 55 with 348 yards coupled with 2 TD's (no picks) and a QBR of 54 (50 is average). They ran the ball 22 times (Ajayi 15 for 70) averaging 5.3 ypc on the ground and we also finally saw some outside threats show out. Zach Ertz finally had a day catching 10 for 112, while the re-emergence of Alshon Jeffery worked wonders (for my bench in fantasy) as he hauled in 8 for 105 and a score. But as a whole the Eagles lost 23-26 in OT to Tennessee.

The Vikings played within a score of the best team in football and that is something to he happy about. They put up 31 points against an elite defense and have had no problem scoring the ball albeit that FU****** Bills game. We haven't been able to run the ball at all, although we haven't really tried either. We are dead last in running attempts this year (73) and are also last in yards (252) and guess what? The Vikings are the 3rd worst team in the NFL averaging 3.5 ypc to (only Baltimore and Tampa are worse). Good thing for us, kinda (not really), the Eagles are #1 in run defense soooooo throw out the run game-were used to it. Philly is middle of the pack in pass defense so the Vikings should be able to exploit the air brigade. Cousins sits 3rd in passing yards, 1st in attempts, and is t-6th in touchdowns.

The Vikings have to get back on track and there is no place I think the state on Minnesota would rather do it than at home against the team that embarrassed the shit out of us in the play in game to the FREEKING BOWL MAN.

The Vikings had the #1 defense last year, and although Sheldon Richardson has been terrific, without Everson Griffin I dont see this unit regaining that prestige. I do know they still have way to much talent to be performing like they have, and i know the crowd will help bring out the best in the boys. You feeling it? BECAUSE IM FEELING IT!

THE BET: VIKINGS +135

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GM 6: 0-4 CARDINALS (+4.5/-115_+170) at 1-3 49ers (-4.5/-105_-205)

This might just be one of the worst games this whole season, so we HAVE to bet it.

Here is the scouting report on the 49ers. Franchise QB out for season with a Torn Knee- Off-season splash FA running back signing out for the year with a knee- Top 2 wide outs banged up- and they now are starting at QB a former Hawkeye.....

Heres the deal: We can break down that Arizona has better talent on offense (David Johnson-Larry Fitzgerald) a better QB (1st round pick Rosen vs 3rd rounder Beathard) or that San Fran is giving up the 7th most point in the league on defense while the Cards or the 14th best (meaning average).

But in actuality, this is a game where we just play the odds because this is a bonafide POOP BOWL. Two horrible teams and there giving us +170 on the squad that has arguably more talent? Great. Now Kyle Shanahan could win this damn game by himself, hes that good, but for one last waning moment im gonna hang onto my Cardinals band wagon ive been steering sense week 1. WILKS DONT LET ME DOWN.

THE BET: CARDINALS +170

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OVER/UNDERS

JAGS/CHIEFS (O/U 49) The Jags have been coughing it up a little more this year and its the Chiefs. Ya, take the over every single time.

DET/GB (O/U 51) Shoot out alert. This is a game where one team is always chasing. Each QB will probably throw atleast 40x, that means slow game flow, lots of clock stoppages, and also some points :)

WASH/NO (O/U 53) Washington is #2 in points given up per game (14.7) and although the Saints are the 4th worst coughing up 30.2 on average- I just have a feeling this is a drawn out game that is low scoring until the 4th and then we sweat it out. Ill have my towel ready, but this is a gut call and I took TUMS.

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CFB BETS

#9 West Virginia (4-0) vs Kansas (2-3)

THE BET: WV -29

West Virginia is averaging 43 point per game and is only allowing 18 on average. WV has covered atleast 29 points to every unranked team they have played so far this season. Did I mention they have the best looking QB in CFB? #FEARTHEGRIER

#14 STANFORD (4-1) vs UTAH (2-2)

THE BET: STAN -4

David Shaw+Top 10 College QB (Costello)+Bryce Love+Non-Ranked Opponent=COVER

Missouri (3-1) at South Carolina (2-2)

In CFB you bet quarterbacks and Drew Lock for Missouri is one of the best. +1 dogs? DONE.