FLOWING MONEY GUIDE: WEEK 6

2018 NFL W/L: 15-32-1

THE GATES GAME: 4/5

WEEK 6 EMOTIONAL STATUS: BARE

OVER/UNDERS: 4/6

REVIEW:

RAMS (-7.5) & SEAHAWS-X

RAVENS (-3) & BROWNS-X

TEXANS (-3) v COWBOYS- PUSH

BRONCOS (PK) & JETS- X

VIKINGS (+135) v EAGLES- $ (GATES GAME)

CARDINALS (+170) & 49ers-$

Two games that surprised me, two that were right, and two I should have FU***** known better. Thats all I have to say about that. On to week 6 (ALREADY?!)

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GM 1: 2-3 EAGLES (-3/-115_-140) at 1-4 GIANTS (+3/-105_+120)

Pat you should have stayed- ya really should have. Coach Shurmur inherited a team with a diva wide-out (when you call out a Manning publicly- the label fits) an unbalanced roster of highly paid players & bad players, and an organization who drafted the best RB in 10 years yet doesn't know how to use him (28th in rushing). The Giants are 1-4 because:

1. 25th in YPG (337) -- Rams 468 in 1st

2. 22nd in total points (104) --Saints 180 in 1st

3. 19th in points against (128) -- Bears 65 in 1st

Those rankings are not miserable, and could certainly pertain to a 2-3 team. But with bad coaching, bad locker room mojo ( at least from the outside, which has an effect in and of itself), and a tough starting schedule, the NY Giants season seems to be already over.

For the defending champs, they are sub .500 and could really use a win. Back-to-back losses against Tennesse (OT) and last week against the VIKINGS, on a short week they could get back to even par. Wentz has been back for three weeks and while the offense is averaging 21 points during his starts (against good defenses), they've coughed up 22 per/game on D.. The problem has been the pass defense allowing the 11th most yards per game threw the air (276) while last year they only allowed 227 on average. Wentz has passing attempts of 37-50-35 so far in 2018, and in 2017 he only had 5 games total throwing more than 35 times. Jay Ajayi is out for the seasons so it will be Corey Clement, Wendell Smallwood and Darrell Sproiles behind center. I love Jay when healthy, but with Doug Peterson at the helm he will find ways to make all three crafty backs shine. This team isn't far away- but it needs more balance on offense, to find its 2017 defensive form, and to COVER VERSUS THE GIANTS.

THE BET: EAGLES -3

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GM 2: 3-2 JAGUARS (-3/-110_-150) & 2-3 COWBOYS (+3/-110_+130)

The lack of respect the Jags have received following a long postseason run in 2017 is really shocking to me. This is an elite defense, and an offense that just somehow figures out how to be good 7/10 weeks. They are consistently inconsistent, but enough so that if we bet them consistently, we will be winners come years end. Both these QB's are rough, Bortles has an 8-7 TD-INT split with Dak's not much better residing 5-4. The leading receiver for Jacksonville is Dede Westbrook while Dallas his trusty Cole Beasley leading the team with 193 yards in 5 games. WOW.

No Fournette which sucks, but they've been ok without him and now that the Grant guy (who was backing up Yeldon) is out forever we might see the NFL running back record holder for career ypc (Jamaal Charles). Tough loss to KC where the Jags made a, previous to this games, bottom 5 defense look like DAAA BEARS. But the Jaguars sit 9th in yards per game, but only 26th in points per game (20.4). The good news is out of the 6 teasm that could be worse than them, there playing one of them. Dallas is 30th, 2nd to last, only putting up 16.6 ppg which is very very very very bad. In a bizarre twist in events, the Cowboys are playing defense only giving up 19.2 ppg (5th), but, uhhh oh, Jacksonville only coughs up 17.2 ppg (3rd) so Dallas really has no advantage besides Zeke and Jerry World.

The Jags are 3-2 ATS with the Cowboys being 2-3. I know the Southern Florida defense is better than Texas while also having more offensive potential.

THE BET: JAGUARS -3

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GM 3: 2-3 SEAHAWKS (-3/+100_-150) +Across the pond+ 1-4 RAIDERS (+3/-120_+130)

The Raiders suck. They have the 3rd worst point differential, have given up the most points in the AFC, and they sold there soul in 2018 (and bank account) for a shot at an ok player in the 2019 draft. If they are punting on the seasons so should we.

The Seahwks showed us why we thought they had a chance to be good this year, Russell Wilson and running the ball. Last week was a typical, circa 2015, Wilson line reading 13/21-198 yards-3 TD. They ran the ball 32 times for 190 yards and a score (5.9 ypc) against one of the best run defense teams in the league (is the SEA line fixed?). They lost to maybe the best team in football by 2, so that is good.

Pete Carroll vs Jon Gruden.. Not sure here...

Meanwhile the Raiders are giving up 423 yards a game and are allowing close to 30 points on average. The biggest problem, going up against last years TD leader, they are giving up almost 280 yards in the air which is bottom 10 in the NFL. Also, with Gruden being out of the game for awhile, Im not sure he handles the "Shit boys were heading to London" trip well as a coach.

I like Russell Wilson and I love Ciara, so im going good guys here.

THE BET: SEAHAWS -3

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GM 4: 5-0 RAMS (-7/-115_-320) at 2-3 BRONCOS (+7/-105_+260) GATES GAME

Rams: 4-1 ATS

Broncos: 0-4-1 ATS

Rams: 5-0 W/L

Broncos: 2-3 W/L

Rams: 5 GP scoring more than 30 points

Broncos: 1 GP scoring more than 30 points

Rams: average margin of victory_ 19

Broncos: average margin of victory_ -6

THE BET: RAMS -7

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GM 5: 5-0 CHIEFS (+3/+100_+160) at 3-2 PATRIOTS (-3/-120_-190)

Now, I could throw a bunch of numbers at you.. and I still will a little... but this game is beyond the #'s- its about legacy.

I care about 3 numbers.

1st- 10. Thats the difference between the Chiefs points scored per game and points given up. The Patriots is 5..

2nd- 5. Thats the amount of wins the Chiefs have, coupled with the 5-0 record ATS as well.

3rd- 23. Thats how only Patrick Mahomes is. Tom Brady is 41- under duress I'm taking the 23 year old.

This game is going to be a shootout, and I think Mahomes has the better gun and gang to boot. I trust Mahomes to make plays more than Tom in this game ( WTF am I saying) due less to "Mahomes is already better than Tom" take, but rather under pressure Brady is getting sacked and Mahomes is escaping the pocket and dropping a 60 yard bomb. I would say that Belichick will dial up the perfect defense to stop Patrick, but I think the Texas Tech alum can only stop himself, hes that good.

#ROLLCHIEFS

THE BET: CHIEFS +160

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OVER/UNDERS

CHARGERS/BROWNS (O/U 44.5)- Rivers and Mayfield? OVER

BILLS/TEXANS (O/U 41)- Josh Allen? UNDER

CHIEFS/PATRIOTS (O/U 60)- Highest split I've seen all year, but do I think there will be 15 combined points scored each quarter? YES-OVER