FLOWING MONEY GUIDE: WEEK 7

2018 NFL W/L: 17-40-1

THE GATES GAME: 4/6

OVER/UNDERS: 7/9

WEEK 7 EMOTIONAL STATUS: CHECK BACK NEXT WEEK

REVIEW:

EAGLES (-3) & GIANTS--$

JAGUARS (-3) & COWBOYS--X

SEAHAWKS (-3) & LONDON v RAIDERS--$

RAMS (-7) & BRONCOS--X

CHIEFS (+160) & PATRIOTS--X

OVER/UNDERS

CHARGERS/BROWNS O/U 44.5--$

BILLS/TEXANS O/U 41-- $

CHIEFS/PATRIOTS O/U 60--$

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GM 1: 2-3 PANTHERS (+5/-110_+195) & 2-4 EAGLES (-5/-110_ -215)

Both of these teams are below .500 ATS (CAR-2-3_PHI 2-4) with not much action on this line so far. Almost all of the numbers have stayed the same sense Monday morning which typically means opportunity. Most people look at this game, and especially these teams, as a stay away for most weeks. But for us I see a wrinkle in this line, and its a MVP at +200 against a losing team. Now, the Eagles are not your typical 2-4 squad; but if we forget about the Super Bowl, this team has not been impressive in 2018.

EAGLES NUMBERS IN 2017 v 2018

2017 2018

Yards/GM: 365(7th) 366(18th)

Points/GM: 28.6(3rd) 22.8(20th)

Opp/Pts/GM: 18.4(4th) 19.5(5th)

Opp/Yards/GM: 306(4th) 352(12th)

The Eagles are not scoring as much in a year scoring is WAY up, and are giving up more yards on D too. But Philly has still been stingy on defense with regards to scoring allowing less than 20 points per game, with a great run defense only giving up 80 yards on the ground per game; second best in the NFL (Saints 1st). Problem is there allowing the 10th most passing yards per game and are banged up in the secondary and at linebacker.

Cam Newton has been good but not great, owning a 9-4 TD/INT split with 231 passing yards per game (26th) and a rushing line on the season of 45-208-3TD with 4.6 ypc. What has really sparked this offense is the tick up in usage for Christian McCaffery. Last year he got 117 rushes TOTAL, this year he is already at 71. He is averaging 70 yards per/gm rushing opposed to 27 last year, 4.9 ypc versus 3.7, and is getting 14.3 carries a game to last years 7.3.

In all I think this is a very even game, so when we see a big number like 2/1 money line odds we take it.

THE BET: PANTHERS +195

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GM 2: 3-2-1 VIKINGS (-3.5_-110_-175) & 3-3 JETS (+3.5/-110_+160)

As Ive said before on this Moneyguide, when you believe in a team you stick with them. Coming into the season the Vikings were a top 3 Super Bowl favorite everywhere you looked. What has changed? Everson is most likely out for the year, Dalvin hasn't been Healthy, and were not 6-0. Our offense has been as good, but more likely better than people had projected. The defense is lagging behind in terms of expectations. Vikings 3-2-1 ATS on most sites/Bookies with the Jets riding a 2 gm ATS streak, but only 3-3 on the year.

Lets see how these teams match up:

Vikings Jets

Points Per GM: 23.3(19th) 27.5(11th)

Points Against PG: 24.7(18th) 23.2(13th)

Passing YPG: 304(8th) 210(27th)

Defense Pass YPG: 266.8(19th) 273(22nd)

Rushing YPG: 87.3(28th) 130(7th)

Defense rush YPG: 93(9th) 109(17th)

Looking strictly at the numbers, the Jets certainly have a case to be the better team. But the money is made in the details and 2 things really stick out. The Vikings strength (passing) is the biggest New York defensive fault. The biggest Vikings asset (run defense) is the biggest Jets strength. Rookie QB's do not match up well against the deceiving Zimmer defense. The 3 biggest offensive scoring games for the Jets all came against some of the worst defenses in the league.

Defensive Points per game Ranks (season)

Week 1 Jets score 48 vs Detroit 25th (27.4)

Week 5 Jets score 34 vs Denver 21st (25.7)

Week 6 Jets score 42 vs Indy 30th (30)

With there poor offensive games coming against defenses that STILL ARE NOT VERY GOOD.

Defensive Points per game Ranks

Week 2 Jets score vs Miami 24.2 (17th)

Week 3 Jets score vs Clevland 25.2 (20th)

Week 4 Jets score vs Jacksonville 21 (9th)

Besides for the Jags (who they lost to by 20) this team hasn't played a single good defenses. Welcome Minnesota, who will certainly put the pressure on Darnold while bottling up the poor Jet receivers in the secondary. The Jets best receiver is out for the game (Enunwa) which is even more reason to like the Vikings defense this week. The number are pretty even, but after this week that will change.

THE BET: VIKINGS -3.5

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GM 3: 6-0 RAMS (-10/EV_-450) at -15 49ers (+10/EV_+360)

The Rams are 6-0 and 4-2 ATS this season-The Niners are 1-5 and are 3-3 ATS.

Kyle Shannahan has been doing more with less than any other coach in the NFL. College couldnt even make CJB a good QB, with Shannahan he looks like a refurbished Chad Pennington.

The Niners losses this season:

Week 1 @ MIN 24-16

Week 3 @ KC 38-27

Week 4 @ SD 29-27

Week 5 v ARI 28-18

Week 6 @ GB 33-30

This is about as impressive of a 1-5 team as you can get. They hung around with Minnesota, gave the Chiefs a better run than several team they've played, lost by two in a Chargers team that is ranked top 5, 1 bad loss really to the Cardinals and again were in a position to beat a good team in the Packers. You dont see many 1-5 teams even ATS spread either.

With all that said, the Rams are the best team in football. They are the second highest scoring team (Chiefs first) and have the biggest point differential in the league. Todd Gurley cannot be stopped and Jared Goff throws balls everyone can catch both near and REALLY far. His ability to stand in the pocket and wait for his guys to get open is really impressive for a young quarterback.

Excuse me while I sit in my season tickets for the Rams.

THE BET: RAMS -10

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GM 4: 5-1 CHIEFS (-7/-105_-260) vs 4-2 BENGALS (+7/-115_+210)

If you saw the Chiefs early we witnessed a dynamic passing offense, but over the last 3 weeks its a team that has became hole. Kareem Hunt, after leading the NFL in rushing as a rookie last year, only had 168 yards on 2.5 ypc threw the first 3 weeks. The last 3 weeks however he has 288 yards and is averaging 5.64 ypc (while also getting 11 fewer attempts weeks 4-6). Also, previous to 43 points given up vs Tom Tuddys, this defense had been on a roll. Week 3 27 PA (points against) SF who has been a surprising team on offense, 23 PA at Denver and only 14 PA vs Jacksonville. Compared to giving up 65 points the first two weeks facing LAC and PIT.

For the Bengals this is a team that on the surface looks to cover 7. They can certainly score putting up 30+ points 3x this year. Dalton has 14 TD to 7 INT, he needs to cut down on the turnovers but for Dalton, when he puts up big passing and TD numbers it almost always comes at the cost of turnovers.

Dalton

2012: 27 TD 16 INT

2013: 33 TD 20 INT

2017: 25 TD 12 INT

Basically a 2/1 ratio, which will cost your team games. But this is also a Bengals unit that runs the ball great in 2018. Joe Mixon averaging 4.7 ypc when healthy (71 att) plus the shifty Gio B gaining 4.6 ypc. AJ Green is averaging 80+ yards per game and has 5 scores, the guy has been arguably the most consistent receiver not named Antonio Brown sense hes entered the NFL. He has missed only 10 games in 7 season, on top of 3 double digit TD seasons, coupled with no fewer than 6 scores ever.

But, but... this defense has been awful.

29th in yards allowed

10th in points given up

5th highest yards given up passing

They just so happen to be going against a guy named Patrick Mahomes, heard of him? Ya, me too. Cinci might score 34, but C will score 48

THE BET: CHIEFS -7

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GM 5: 4-2 PATRIOTS (-3/-110_-145) @ 3-2 BEARS (+3/-110_+130)

I dont need numbers for this game.

If the Bears wreck havoc on Brady and cover well the Bears could win.

If Tom Brady is Tom Brady this game isnt close.

If Mitchel Trubisky is Mitchell Trubisky this game isnt close.

THE BET: PATRIOTS -3

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CFB

Marlyand +275 @ #19 Iowa- Terps have some impressive wins and have 2 backw oh average more than 8 ypc. Give me them in the big upset.

#12 Oregon +110 @ #25 Washington State- Justin Herbert is the best playmaker in the country at QB. I am betting this kid every week

Purdue +13 vs #2 Ohio State- Purdue has 3 losses by a combined 8 points. They've scored 40+ points against SEC and BIG10 schools. They can keep up, and maybe even upset.

USC +7.5 @ Utah- JT Daniels hasnt been the wonder boy some people though coming into this season, but the true freshmen QB is riding a 3 game W streak and coming off a great W vs #19 Colorado. Only 7 TD to 5 INT, I think this week (in prime-time) will be his coming out party.

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OVER/UNDERs

Panthers/Eagles O/U 45.4- OVER- This game has some great QB play and I think itll be on full display come Sunday. Overs are north of 55% this season and this game smells like a shootout.

Chiefs/Bengals O/U 58.5- OVER- Chiefs have a 4-2 record in over/unders this year. Cinci can score, KC ALWAYS scores- and yet again a O/U that should be 72 is double digit points to low.

Giant/Falcons O/U 54.5- UNDER- Falcons have been great in overs this year, but it stops in week 8. Giants throw up a clunker and the Falcons have an easy win. Giants fail to score even 20 points and the second highest total this week goes under.