FLOWING MONEY GUIDE: WEEK 8

2018 NFL W/L: 23/45 (1 push)

GATES GAME: 5/7

OVER/UNDERS: 8/12

EMOTIONAL STATUS: GREAT

REVIEW:

PANTHERS (+195) & EAGLES-$

VIKINGS (-3.2) & JETS-$

RAMS (-10) & 49ers-$

CHIEFS (-7) vs BENGALS-$

PATRIOTS (-3) & BEARS-$

OVER/UNDERS

PANTHERS/EAGLES OVER-X

CHIEFS/BENGALS OVER-X

GIANTS/FALCONS UNDER-$

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GM 1: 1-6 49ers (pk) & 1-6 Cardinals (pk)

Worst game of the week, and a top 5 JV game this season. So ya know what? We bet it. San Fran is 2-5 ATS with the Niners sitting at 3-3-1. The Spread is actually a pretty good indicator of how your team is performing in comparison to expectations. So for the Cardinals, who have been brutal and are 1-6 on the year, they've actually somehow been worse in the sense that even with a handicap (the spread) they still manage to lose BIG. For the Cali Kids, albeit the same record, have played several close and competitive games.

I used this chart last week, but its worth repeating:

The Niners losses this season:

Week 1 @ MIN 24-16_-8

Week 2 (Win- 30-27 v Detroit)

Week 3 @ KC 38-27_-11

Week 4 @ SD 29-27_-2

Week 5 v ARI 28-18_-10

Week 6 @ GB 33-30_-3

Week 7 v LAR 39-10_-29

You could argue the worst game that the 49ers have played this year is the 10 point loss AT HOME versus these Cardinals. (Which we just have to pretend didn't happen, OK)

Biggest story lines from that Week 5 game:

-49ers fumbled 4x and lost 3

-San Fran rushing yards: 34 attempts 147 yards

-Cardinals rushing yards: 23 attempts 56 yards

-CJ Beathard stats: 34/54 349 yards 2 TD 2 INT 50.4 QBR

-Josh Rosen stats: 10/25 170 yards 1 TD 0 INT 33.4 QBR

-Sacks: 49ers 1_Cards 4

Defensive Touchdowns: 49ers 0_ Cards 2 (both pick 6)

What a freeking mess. In football, 9 times out of 10 if you double up a team on yards there is no way you should lose. This feels like a hockey where your team dominates possession and shots but the other team squeaks out 2 goals on 17 shots and you lose.. Heres the thing, Beathards counting numbers are not bad this season: 4 starts- 62.4 comp %- 1,062 yards (over 4k stretched over a season)- 7 TD 7 INT (28-28 TD/INT over a season). The guy is pretty darn good besides for the damn picks. You dont think a guy who looks like him and is a backup should be able to play, but under yung Shannahan he has become a legit passing threat.

I really dont know why the Cardinals are as bad as they are. Its a team under 1st year coach Steve Wilks that has looked lost. You have a top 5 talent at the running back position in David Johnson, but he doesnt even have a 100+ yard game so far this year, and only has 1 game of 20+ carries. THATS A PROBLEM. But it all starts with the issue on the O-Line, it has to be. DJ is only averaging 3.2 ypc, and hes WAY better than that. Also, the Cards have not done any favors for rookie QB Josh Rosen- His stats over his 1st 4 starts: .55 comp%- 820 yards- 3 TD 5 INT. The picks are equal parts Rosen and the line, they need to give him more time so he doesnt have to rush throws and reads.

I think this line should be -3.5 SF but with the 10 point loss earlier this year bookies just couldn't do it. As we say, if its a pick'em we pick'em, and were going with the better team, coach, and lifestyle.

THE BET: 49ers (pk)

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GM 2: 6-1 CHIEFS (-10.5/-105_-580) vs 3-4 BRONCOS (+10.5/-115_+430)

This is pretty easy for me. Lets look at these teams points scored every week this year.

KC:

Week 1 @ LAC-38

Week 2 @ PIT-42

Week 3 v SF-38

Week 4 @ DEN-27

Week 5 v JAC-30

Week 6 @ NE-40

Week 7 v CIN-45

DEN:

Week 1 v SEA-27

Week 2 v OAK-20

Week 3 @ BAL-14

Week 4 v KC- 23

Week 5 @ NYJ-16

Week 6 v LAR-20

Week 7 @ ARI-45

KC Average Points Per Game: 37.14

DEN Average Point Per Game: 23.6

The Chiefs defense was awful the first 4 weeks of the season ranking bottom 3 in both yards allowed and point given up on defense. But over the last 3 weeks they have been middle of the pack, and they played extremely well (without 2 pro bowlers-Eric Berry and Lamar Houston) against a Bengals offense that has been tough to stop this season. As much as I liked the idea of this Denver offense going into the year, its apparent that what Keenum did with Thielen and Diggs was a tribute to the talent in Minnesota. In Denver I thought Thomas and Sanders, coupled with a great run game, would bring to light a similar result. But I think with what we have seen from Thielen this year, and what Denver has done, we might have underrated the abilities of the Vikings skill position players, but are also seeing an older crop of wide outs in Denver starting to trend in the wrong direction.

Ive been blasting Mahomes stats all year, so ill save you the reading. HES AMAZING. The previous game these teams played was the closest margin of victory for the Chiefs this year. That game was in Denver, this game will be played in one of the best home field advantages in the sport. KC is getting better every week, and although Denver is coming off a big win, it works in our favor bringing down a line that honestly should maybe be higher. The last Denver game is the only contest KC hasn't covered the spread, and I know they want to have there toast and jelly following this one.

THE BET: CHIEFS -10.5

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GM 3: 4-2 R-Words (-1/-115_-119) at 1-6 GIANTS (+1/-105_-101) GG

This is a bizarre game. Rarely, if ever, do you see a team 1-6 getting this much respect against a team that has double the amount of wins as losses. Now with the Giants we have a team with 2 elite offensive weapons who any given week can just win a game. With that said, we haven't seen much of that this year whatsoever. Saquon Barkley could be leading the league in rushing by 400 yards if he didn't have offensive lineman who wanted him to get tackled. Odell with all the frustration this year, is still having a great year by all metrics (besides Touchdowns).

Washington has some nice wins this season:

WK 7: 20-17 v Dallas

WK 6: 23-17 v Carolina

WK 3: 31-17 v Green Bay

WK 1: 24-6 @ Arizona

There two losses are against Andrew Luck and Drew Brees, so when we look at this team as a whole they have been pretty damn good. The Skins are the 3rd best team against the run and are 5th in total yards given up. They also sit 7th in points allowed, this is a team that wins close games. ALEX SMITH WINS close games, that should be on this guys gravestone.

The G-Men, to their credit, have played a lot of close games.

WK 1- 5 point loss to Jags (20-15)

WK 2- 7 point loss to Cowboys (20-13)

WK 3- They beat the Texans by 5

WK 4- 15 point loss to Saints (33-18)

WK 5- 2 point loss to Panthers (33-31)

WK 6- 21 point loss to Eagles (34-13)

WK 7- 3 point loss to Falcons (23-20)

So heres the deal- Washington wins close game, Giants lose them. Good thing its only -1, because thats were we are laying some wood. Also, did I mention AP trails Saquon by only 50 yards rushing on the year? Ya, hes still good to.

THE BET: R-Words (-1)

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GM 4: 2-5 COLTS (-3.5/-105_-160) at 1-5 RAIDERS (+3.5/-115_+140)

I think we can officially buy season tickets for betting against the Raiders. Oakland is 2-4 ATS with Indy sitting at 3-4. Guess what? Theyll be .500 ATS following this week.

For those who didn't think Andrew Luck would be back, WELL, HES BACK.

Andrew Luck:

10th in Yards

1st in attempts

2nd in completions (to captain Kirk)

2nd in Touchdowns (to Mahomes)

T-3rd in Interceptions (he has always given it away a bit)

TY Hilton is back healthy and with the emergence of Eric Ebron as a legit go-to Tight End this offense can compete with just about any in the league. Marlon Mack came back huge last week and rookie Nyhem Hines has been a great receiving back option when in games. As per Colts, the defense just hasn't been good enough. They are giving up T-7th most points the the NFL and also give up the 12th most yards.. 3 of the 5 Colts losses have been by 8 or less points, with the 2 exceptions coming against the Bengals (11) and Patriots (14).

The Raiders are a West Coast HOT mess. Derek Carr with his 25 million per year salary has more picks (8) than six (7). They just traded there best offensive weapon, former Alabama WR Amari Cooper, for a 1st round pick from Dallas. They traded there best defensive weapon to the Bears for several picks before the season, so it looks like Jon Gruden and the Raiders are taking notes from Sam Hinkie and the 76ers. THEY WANT TO LOSE, and we will let them. Marshawn Lynch, who actually looked impressive in his age 33 season, was put on the IR this week. Douggie Martin is now 30 and takes over as the leading back. 7 years removed from his league leading 1,454 yard rookie season (I feel old), He hasnt averaged better than 3.7 ypc sense 2015.

The Raiders could be an interesting team next year, but for the remainder of this year I know this team will be awful.

THE BET: COLTS -3.5

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GM 5: 3-4 JETS (+7.5/-110_+305) at 3-3 BEARS (-7.5/-110_-390) __VALUE BET

Bears enter week 8 3-3 ATS, with the Jets at 3-4. The only time New York covered as the dog was back in week one when they beat the Lions by 31, entering the game +7. Chicago is 2-1 at home ATS covering against Seattle and Tampa Bay, but falling to cover against New England. Similar to last weeks +200 with Cam Newton, I just think these teams closer that a +300 moneyline would indicate. Now the Bears should win, but not by those odds. Heres why--

Offensive Comparison:

Chicago Jets

PPG: 28.3(6th) 26(13th)

AVG Yards: 380.7(11th) 330(27th)

Def PPG: 22.3(11th) 25.1(17th)

AVG Yards: 350(12th) 371(19th)

Point Differential: +36 +6

The numbers are certainly tilted in the Bear direction. But over the past 2 weeks Chicago has given up 33 points per game. The defense was top 5 in all those categories going into week 4, so its a unit trying to get back to where it once was. On offense Mitchell Trubisky has been better as well; over the last 3 weeks he has a 11-3 TD-INT split, throwing for over 300 yards every game and averaging 36 attempts in those games. The thing that worries me is how the Bears have lost there identity as a run first team, they haven't had a 100 yard game from any player in 2018. Jordan Howard has only 1 game of 20+ touches, and has 5 games of 15 or less carries. Coming off two 1,000+ yard seasons, youd like to see him get more involved.

For the Jets I really just believe in this teams ability to randomly show up and win games. So far this year, they have beat who they should have, and have lost to better teams as well.

Jets Losses:

Miami-Clevland-Jacksonville-Minnesota

Jets Wins:

Lions-Denver-Colts

All 3 of those teams they've beat, coming into the season, I would have argued are better squads than DA BEARS. Now at week 8 things have changed slightly, but still beating Matt Stafford, Case Keenum and Andrew Luck by a 1st year rookie is pretty impressive for yung Sam Darnold. He leads the league in picks (10) but if he can cutdown on the interceptions this kid, and team, has a lot of promise going forward ATS. He has struggled against good defenses, as exemplified last week against Minnesota (3 int-17/42-206 yards), but the kids smart and I think hell be ready to throw down come Sunday.

This is a total gut call, but im pulling the trigger.

THE BET: JETS +305

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GM 6: 5-2 PATRIOTS (-14/-110_-1400) at 2-5 BILLS (+14/-110_+800)

This is easy money. We will punch our Pats season tickets once again.

THE BET: PATRIOTS -14

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OVER/UNDERS

PACKERS/RAMS O/U 57- OVER- Rams average 33.6 ppg, Pack average 24.7. Rogers and Goff, easy $. Also, Green Bay is hitting 83% of overs this year.

EAGLES/JAGUARS O/U 43- OVER- Second lowest total of the week, I got it at 41 Monday night and has already risen 2.5 points. This has the makings of a 12-6 clunker, but if we get a normal game flow in London I think this could easily hit. If Bortles gets back to big play Bortles it might even double cover.

BENGALS/BUCCANEARS O/U 54- OVER- Second highest total of the week, thats good for us. Bucs cover 73% of overs in 18' and the Bengals are at 57%.