FLOWING MONEY GUIDE: WEEK 9

2018 NFL W/L: 27/45 (52%)

GATES GAMES: 6/8 (75%)

OVER/UNDERS: 10/15 (66%)

EMOTIONAL STATUS: VERY NICE

REVIEW:

49ers(PK) & CARDINALS-X (This was the worst beat of the week)

CHIEFS (-10.5) vs BRONCOS-X

R-WORDS (-1) at GIANTS-$

COLTS (-3.5) at RAIDERS-$

JETS (+305) at BEARS-X (VALUE BET)

PATRIOTS (-14) at BILLS-$

PANTHERS (+105) vs RAVENS-$

OVER/UNDERS

PACKERS/RAMS O/U 57-X

EAGLES/JAGUARS O/U 43-$

BENGALS/BUCCANEERS O/U 54-$

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GM 1: 5-2 CHARGERS (+1.5/-110_+115) at 4-3 SEATTLE (-1.5/-110_-125)

One week can have a huge impact on how the public, and bookies, look at a team. ONLY LAST WEEK Seattle was +3 on the road in Detroit, they would win by 14 (28-14), and a week later there saying Seattle is essentially a pick'em against a Chargers team who has only lost to Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes. The Seahawks enter this contest a solid 4-2-1 ATS riding a 3 game cover streak, with the Chargers only 3-4 but covering 2 of their last 3. On the road the Chargers are 2-1 ATS, with the Seahawks are currently 2-0 at home (the 12th man lives!).

The Chargers are 4-0 after starting off the year 1-2 in large part because of there balanced offense. League wide, the Chargers stand 6th in total yards per game (402)-10th in passing ypg (278)- and 10th in rushing ypg too (125).

The defense was, in my opinion, suppose to be this teams calling card in 2018. After coming into the year with a dominant D-Line including Joey Bosa (12.5 Sacks in 2017), Melvin Ingram (10.5 sacks in 2017), plus Super Bowl Champion D-Tackle Brandon Mebane (with the former 2 being current Pro-Bowlers) that unit was as good as any to start off the year. Denzel Perryman has been a good linebacker for them out of Miami, and I thought arguably the best pick in the draft was the Chargers selection of Derwin James at #13. James, to date, ranks 1st on the team in tackles, 2nd in sacks, and T-2nd in Interceptions. Sense that point though Bosa hasnt even played, Ingrams play has suffered because of it, and there CB's have not been as healthy or good as advertised. This defense ranks 16th in yards given up, but still hold a respectable opponent scoring average of 23.3 (good for 13th in the NFL). Its a defene that has bent but has not broken quite yet under HC Anthony Lynn, and when Bosa finally returns this team is a darkhorse to make a run at the Super Bowl.

For Seattle its a squad that has gone back to what made them a success during the Lynch/Carroll/Wilson/Legion of Boom era- Running the football. They sit 5th in ypg (135) after finishing 23rd last year. They average 4.2 ypc on those rushes (T-17th) and have the most attempts per game int he NFL (31.7). Unfortunately, there passing game has suffered as a side effect. This year they sit 27th in ypg passing, last year they ranked 14th. Russell Wilson led the league in Touchdowns last year, he currently sits T-7th. But possibly the sneakiest thing about the Seahawks this year has been the defense. Richard Sherman gone, Cam Chancellor retired, Cliff Avril gone, Michael Bennett sent packing- inspite of that they are giving up the 4th fewest ppg in the league.... Hmmmmm... They also allow the 4th fewest passing yards, this unit it legit.

But, we dont care. You cant defend all the weapons this LA Chargers team has. That list includes Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, 17' frist round pick Mike Williams, Heck Anthony Eckler consistently makes plays! Who are we scared of for Seattle? Russell sure, but Doug Baldwin hasnt been the same after off-season surgery. Is Chris Carson really a RB we have to gameplan for? His backup Mike Davis? No.. Is Tyler Lockett going to win you a game? Have you seen many Brandon Marshall highlights? Didnt think soo.. Coming into the year Seattle had the 5th easiest strength of schedule, the Chargers ranks 24th and it has played even tougher with how dominant KC and LAR have been.

Im picking the team that has the better night club scene and better weather.

THE BET: CHARGERS +115

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GM 2: 5-3 TEXANS (+1/-110_+115) at 3-5 BRONCOS (-1/-110_-125)

Two teams I really believed in coming into the year. One has been on the comeback train riding a 5 game winning streak, the other just sent away one of the franchises best all time players... Its also slightly ironic that, the player mentioned previously, will be playing his former team his first week after being traded. Deshaun Watson adds Demaryius Thomas to a WR corps that already has arguably the #1 talent at the position, Deandre Hopkins. This team is all of a sudden not fair- showtime Watson? DT? Dredz Hopkins? This team has some serious skill. For the Broncos they are a squad that had a lot of upside coming into the year. They signed a new QB in Case Keenum, after having to watch Brook Osweiler-Trevor Simien- and Paxton Lynch the last 6 years. They picked the drafts highest rated player in Bradley Chubb, DE out of NC State, to put alongside the NFL's best pass rusher Von Miller. Denver also drafted two new RB's, one of which was suppose to be a "Fantasy Stud" in collegiant bell-cow back Royce Freeman. But it hasn't blended together seamlessly for head coach Vance Joseph, who has done less with more than any other team this season.

Watson at the helm of the Texans has been intriguing in 2018. Lets compare his 2017 numbers (when he set the league on FIRE) to the ones he has this year--

2017 2018

Games Played: 7 8

300+ Yards Games: 2 4

Multi-TD Games: 5 4

5+ Run Attempts: 4 6

Total Touchdowns: 21 17

Interceptions: 8 7

QB Rating 100+: 4 3

Looking those numbers over, in general I dont think Watson has disappointed in his rebound season following a week 8 exit last year due to a knee. The big exceptions to these numbers are A. In 2017 Watson didnt start week 1 or 2, with him finsihing off the off the games so his yardage and TD totals could and should be higher. B. Watson threw for 5 touchdowns last week after having a season high of 2 previous to the Miami game. Another interesting note about Deshaun, in his last 3 games (all wins) he has thrown 25 or less passes each time. Before those games he had averaged roughly 40 attempts a game. Some of that is gameflow and schedule, sure, but this is a guy who can KILL you off of play action, but if you never run, he isnt as dangerous out of the gun or with a 3-5 step drop in the pocket.

For Denver the issue has been, at least in part, an issue at the quarterback position. Case Keenum already has more picks thrown this year (10) than he had all of last season (7). In 14 starts last year as a Vikings Keenum threw 22 touchdowns, so far in 8 starts as a Bronco he has thrown only 10..

The Denver defense hasn't been good either.....

NFL TEAM RANK

Pts/G: 14th (24)

Yds/G: 22nd (373)

Pass D: 11th (237 yards against per/g)

Run D: 27th (136 yards against per/g)

Houston is hot, Denver is not, Texans got swag, Denver rocks drag- im going down south with my money.

THE BET: TEXANS +115

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GM 3: 7-1 CHIEFS (-9/-115_-395) at 2-6 BROWNS (+9/-105_+342) GG

This, ladies and gents, might be one of the easiest bets of the year. Chiefs are 6-2 ATS this year, with boss losses coming against those damn Broncos. Meanwhile the Browns sit

5-3 ATS, not bad, but this team is trending in the wrong direction. Over their last 4 games they are only averaging 16.75 ppg. Over the Chiefs last 4, they are putting up 36.25 ppg. This line started at -8.5 Chiefs and on sime places has already moved to 10. The public has figured out the Chiefs are the best bet in sports and Bookies are letting us stay on the money trail. It will dry up shortly, but while supplies last lets invest heavily.

THE BET: CHIEFS -9

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GM 4: 4-3-1 VIKINGS (-6/-110_-240) vs 3-4 LIONS (+6/-110_-195)

Man, my view of the Vikings has really took a hit. Coming into the year I had 0 doubt id bet them every week and walk away a champion, or atleast on the better side of the money come Christmas.. So far Skol nation is 4-3-1 ATS, with the Detroit boys 5-2! But for the Vikings, following a shocking start that resulted in a tie to GB and a L to The Bills Mafia, Minnesota has covered 4 of their last 5 games. Meanwhile Detroit has covered 5 of their last 6! Jesus! Everson Griffin is back for MN which bodes well for everyone. His production has been elite the past 5 years, but his moral and personality in the locker room cannot be understated too. For Detroit they sent away Golden Tate, who had 90+ reception in all 4 years as a Lion. Hes gone, so now its really time for the duo of Kenny Galladay and Marvin Jones to shine, and with Stafford they will.

But the guy I like most on this Detroit team is there rookie running back from Auburn- Kerryon Johnson. He has slowly, but rightly, won over the coaching staff to secure lead back duties in D-Town. They still dont give him the ball enough (only 3 games w/ double digit carries) but when they do it works. He currently leads the NFL in ypc (6.1) and has 466 yards on 77 tries. Only 1 TD, but he is averaging 60 yards a game while also catching 21 of his 26 targets so far this year. He can do it all, and I think in a year or two he might just be the best back in the NFC North.

The Vikings had won 3 straight until D-Breezy walked into US Bank Stadium. Spread was +2.5 for the Vikings and they lost by 10. It is there second worst performance ATS besides the disastrous 37.5 point spread differential in week 3. But in spite of one of the teams most dynamic players barley playing all year (Dalvin Cook) Latavius Murray has actually been more than serviceable. Top 5 in the NFL in ypc (4.7) and has 4 scores in 8 gp. He has caught 81% of his targets and has never caught less than 74% in any season. He is a player that when healthy can do everything on the football field, and actually has a very similar running style to KJ for Detroit.

I think 6 points is a little to much, it opened at -4.5/+4.5 but has already risen a point and a half. Regardless Im still with the Vikings but the uneven kicking this year makes all 2/6/10 point spreads that much scarier week-to-week. Im not selling my season tickets this week, I am going to the game and I believe ill be remembered a winner.

THE BET: VIKINGS -6

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GM 5: 4-3 BEARS (-10/-105_-520) at 2-6 BILLS (+10/-115_+400)

So your telling me Nathan Peterman is starting for Buffalo? GREAT.

THE BET: BEARS -10

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OVER/UNDERS

PATRIOTS/PACKERS O/U 57- OVER- Its Rodgers and Brady, cmon?

RAMS/SAINTS O/U 59- OVER- Its Brees and Goff, cmon?

VIKINGS/LIONS O/U 49- OVER- Its Cousins and Stafford, cmon?