FLOWING MONEY GUIDE: WEEK 11

2018 NFL W/L: 35-55

GATES GAME: 8/10

OVER/UNDERS: Have NOT done the math

EMOTIONAL STATUS: Wavering

REVIEW:

FALCONS (-6.5) at BROWNS-X

SAINTS (-6.5) at BENGALS-$

PATRIOTS (-7.5) at TITANS-X

JAGUARS (+125) at COLTS-X

R-WORDS (+150) at BUCCANEERS-$

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GM 1: 5-3-1 VIKINGS (+3.5/-125_+130) at 6-3 BEARS (-3.5/+105_-150)

Whichever team wins this game I think will more than likely win the NFC North. Huge week for both of these teams, lets see what the numbers say.

Quarterbacks:

Mitchell Trubskiy is in the process of pulling a Jared Goff, his first year really could not have looked or been worse under a tough coach and bad situation. Then in year 2 with a new head honcho, more weapons, and a better offense there play has completely turned around. In 12 starts last year Mitch had 7 touchdowns and 7 interceptions while averaging below 200 yards per game. This year, if you take out the first 3 weeks of the season (he wasnt good), in those 6 starts he has a 17-4 TD-INT split, is averaging 285 yards in the air while also chipping in 43 rushing yards a game on a ridiculous 9.5 ypc with 2 scores. VERY GOOD MITCH, VERY VERY GOOD.

But for Kirk and SKOL nation, Its not even a question anymore weather they made the correct call in signing Cousins instead of splurging on Case Keenum. But how about this, MITCH TRUBISKY has more passing touchdowns that Kirk- on the season Cousins split is 17-5, while Trubisky sits 19-7. HMMMM. But Kirk has him in almost all other categories in passing, hes completing an incredible 71% of his throws, is averaging 298 yards per game (second highest rate of his career) and has 1 rushing score on the year to. Cousins has been good, but yet again he has not been able to reach elite status with touchdowns. His career high is 29 in 2015, hes on pace to get close to that mark in 18' despite the best WR corps hes ever had.

When we talk D, these teams are on top like Friends and The Office for sitcoms. They are consistent, have a great onsomble (how I spell it), and have had some longevity that is rare. Both are top 5 in total yards allowed and passing defense, you cant really give the edge to any one team. I would argue Minnesota has a deeper roster on that side of the ball, but when Khalil Mack is on noone is better.

Bottom line we are betting the Vikes all year long, not because were hommers, but because coming into the season this was the best roster in football. PERIOD. My one concern is how Cousins will play in the chills of Soldier Field come November, but if he can handle it I think the Vikings balanced offense with Dalvin back in the mix takes the cake and Zimmers defense make Trubisky feel like hes in a Stephen King novel.

THE BET: VIKINGS +150

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GM 2: 4-4-1 PACKERS (+2.5/-105_+130) at 4-5 SEAHAWKS (-2.5/-115_-150)

This is another game with very big postseason implications. If the Pack lose, they have no shot at the NFC North and more than likely throw themselves out of the race for a Wild Card slot. For Seattle they have 0% chance of catching up to the Rams, but with a win would get back to 5-5 and could certainly have a chance to be a Wild Card team with a 9-6 record.

It sucks, but the legion of boom is gone. Seattle from 2010 to 2016 led the league in defense 5x..... Thats incredible. But now with that whole crew literally gone, things have changed. They sit 12th in yards allowed per game (Packers 11th), 7th in pass defense (Packers 5th), and 18th against the run (Packers 22nd). Although the Seattle numbers are surprising, I am also struck by how decent the Packers defense looks with these numbers.

Did you know, Aaron Rodgers only has 1 interception on the year? ONE! Only 17 touchdowns, but man is that good. 355 attempts this year, one pick... DAMN. 300+ yards a game Rodgers has been Rodgers. But Wilson has been Wilson to owning a 21-5 TD-INT spli which places him T-4th in the NFL for touchdowns a year after leading the league with 34 (Mahomes has 31 right now).

The Packers have a better defense and, although I think hes one of the worst leaders in all of sports, A-Rod is damn good and I can never rest easy knowing I have money on the other side of him.

THE BET: PACKERS +2.5

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GM 3: 4-5 EAGLES (+10/-125_+360) at 8-1 SAINTS (-10/+105_-450)

This might be one of the better value bets I've seen this year. Now, the Saints have been on a WAGON so far-BUT- we are still talking about the reigning Super Bowl Champs. The Saints are a 7-2 ATS (Best record besides KC 8-2) and the Eagles are a horrible 3-6 (T-4th worst). Sense 2010, only 3 teams have finished a season 80% or better ATS: 2016 Patriots (16-3) and the 2015 Vikings (14-3) and Bengals (12-3-2). Right now the Saints sit at 77%, and I dont think this is a team that is 80% worthy.

New Orleans haven't lost sense week 1 and they have my third favorite coach in the NFL. Also, of the Saints 9 games this season, they have scored 40+ points in 5 of them. The Eagles have only passed 30 points once, and that was a 34-13 win over the the NY Giants.

Like all upsets, thee numbers are not going to let you know its happening. WHO THOUGHT THE BILLS WOULD MASSACRE THE VIKINGS. That was as sure a bet as ever, and look what happened. We've discussed this many times my friends, sometimes we just have to throw the numbers out and play with our guts. Your giving me the defending Champs, with there MVP (until hurt) QB back in the saddle and getting more comfortable, plus a defense that is finally starting to get healthy. Screw the cover, were going for the lottery BOYS.

THE BET: EAGLES +360

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GM 4: 6-3 TEXANS (-3.5/+105_-170) at 6-3 R-WORDS (+3.5/-125_+145)

We would like to take this time to thank Dan Snyder, Jay Gruden, and Alex Smith for winning us money last week.

With that said, our money is on the Texans this week, although the -3.5 is quite scary for a game I anticipate to be close. But I still think were sitting on a legendary Deshaun Watson moment for 2018, I think this week could be it.

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GM 5: 4-5 COWBOYS (+3.5/-115_+150) at 4-5 FALCONS (-3.5/+100_-170)

Falcons had three straight wins until a clunker against Cleveland. They put up 34 v Tampa 4 weeks ago and 38 against Washington 2 weeks ago, the offense is finally back. I hate the Cowboys, we go Falcons.

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GM 6: 6-3 STEELERS (-6.5/-105_-250) at 3-6 JAGUARS (+6.5/-115_+200)

Steelers 5 straight covers, 3-1 as away favorites on the year. Jags have only scored 20+ points 1 time in the last 5 weeks, less than 10 twice in that span, and have literally lost 5 games in a row.

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GM 7: I LOVE THE CHIEFS +150 at RAMS

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GM 8: I ALSO BET CHARGERS -7.5 vs BRONCOS

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No over/unders, lazy week for Flow. Well see ya next time!