FLOWING WISDOM: NFL FUTURES 19'

BEST TIME OF THE YEAR, all the bets you place are great ideas- a "why not" mentality. You've been starring at the yearlong and week 1 fantasy player projections for 3 weeks and cannot get enough of it. You have a VERY strong opinion of weather your teams over/under is far to aggressive or IS COMPLETELY DISRESPECTFUL.

With that said, lets make some money.

DIVISION WINNERS

AFC WEST- CHIEFS (-180)

AFC EAST- PATRIOTS (-450)

Im putting these together because if you can find a bookie that will let you parlay this DO IT. Pats have won the East 10+ year straight and Josh Allen/Sam Darnold/FitzMagic will keep that streak very much alive. Chiefs had a little upset potential in the West with a dangerous Chargers team, but with Derwin James (who as a rookie might have been the best safety in football last year) out for the year the Chiefs are as much of a lock as QB's not jugging Beers nearly as well as their linemen. The Chiefs end the year at Chicago then host the Chargers... That could be VERY interesting. If you cant parlay and you have a lot of gambling capital I support throwing as much money as humanly possible on both these bets, they will pay.

AFC NORTH- RAVENS (+350)

The Steelers and Browns are both around +150 to win the North, but guess who won this division last year with Joe Flacco and a rookie QB under center? THE RAVENS. Yes the Browns got OBJ and a slightly washed up Olivier Vernon, but there still the Browns and that means a hole lot until proven otherwise. There O-Line is on paper a bottom third unit in the league, I highly doubt they run the ball at the same efficiency they did last year and it will hurt Bakers passing to. The Steelers know how to win, and Ben is still rocking one of the best bad body bodies in the entire league. I dont think hes lifted a weight sense the combine and will still be a 1st ballot HOF'er.

Here's the deal, its gambling for a reason. The Ravens have a bad WR grouping until the rookies Brown and Boykin produce. The defense lost its anchor CJ Mosley to the Jets. I WANT ADVERSITY IN MY BETS. They add Mark Ingram who is truly one of the most underappreciated players over the last 6 years (4.7 ypc- 61 rush ypg- 20 receiving ypg- 40 TD 80 gms *as the semi backup). Earl Thomas finally got paid and is ready to ball out at safety (while helping all the young players to). Lamar has a whole off-season to learn how to throw a ball and run even faster, plus there coached by a guy who won a Super Bowl with Joe freeking Flacco. This team is a proven winner, they will win with stout defense and running the sh** out of the ball. The odds are great, and I think there every bit as good as the teams from Cleveland and Pittsburgh- WHY NOT US?

AFC SOUTH- JAGUARS (+225)

Second best odds to Houston at +175, this team is a year removed from winning this Division with blackout Blake as their QB. The Texans defense is VERY legit, and the offense (hold the O-Line) is pretty remarkable as well, but this Jags team is underrated. Who knows what Nick Foles well get (27 TD 2 INT in 13'--35 combined TD's the next 5 years--- then a miracle Super Bowl run) but he should at least bring consistent play and with a healthy/rejuvenated Fournette the offense could be average. The Bears showed last year (12-4 record) that average offense with GREAT defense leads to success. Jacksonville drafted the best pass rusher in Kentucky stud Josh Allen to stack on top of an already loaded defensive unit- if Houston falters this team will be there to capitalize. At more than 2/1 odds Im ok rolling the dice on big gut Dougie and his squad.

NFC WEST- SEAHAWKS (+325)

The case for rationalizing the Seahawks at 3/1 playing in the same division as the reigning NFC Champs...

1. Are we sure Sean McVay is like THAT DUDE and can just turn out consistent winners all the time?

2. I know Goff has 28 and 32 TD passes the last 2 years with not a shit load if INTs, but are we sure he is a legit top 10 QB who can win games in the 4th when its not a blowout?

3. Are we sure Gurley is going to be chill after week 8, and if he isn't does this offense looks like it did in the Super Bowl?

4. Are we sure this team doesn't suffer a Super Bowl hangover and goes 11-5 losing the tiebreaker to Seattle?

5. Are we sure this defense isnt to old and if anything were to happen to Donald they'd be mediocre at best?

I love Seattle's run game (#1 in rushing yards league wide LY), always trust Wilson and white hair Pete, plus the defense made some sneaky moves this off season too. I just think the Rams are nowhere near a lock quite yet as a mark it down 12-4 every year team, and the Seahawks have the pedigree and roster to get to double digit wins.

NFC EAST- COWBOYS (+160)

What have the Eagles shown to be -160 to win the East? They have Wentz, who at his best can put up MVP numbers, but at his worst HES ON THE FUC**** BENCH as the dude has NEVER played all 16 1x in his 3 year career (ok except his rookie year but that makes this point not nearly as strong). Ya ya there defense is really good, they signed Malik Jackson who is solid, plus they bring back almost all there guys who form a superb D-Line and legit secondary. This is probably the 2nd best defense in the NFC.

BUT GUESS WHO HAS THE BEST DEFENSE? THE BOYS! Lets be clear, I really hate this team. But after 5 years of pretty damn good results I gatta respect what Jerry and co. have built. Lawrence+Quinn+Taco = Incredible D-Line on paper (5th best team against the run in 18-19 *and they'll be better this year). Probably have the best linebackers in the league with Lee+Smith+Vander Esch all of whom are incredibly versatile backers. The secondary is a little more dodgy but the front 7 just so damn good that they really just need a pulse to be competent. I dont like Dak as a person, but (insert Jon Gruden) he makes plays man. On 3rd down his ability to scramble for a 1st down is something that separates him from a lot of other QB's in the league. Career 66 comp % TD-INT over his 3 years read 23-4 22-13 22-8. Not HOF numbers but with his running chops and the teams its all you need. They had the rushing champ last year (please come back) and play a brand of football that just sucks to play and root against. I see the Eagles and Cowboys as very equal teams, and although I would lean slightly toward Philly, the odds say put the $ on the team from Texas.

NFC NORTH- VIKINGS (+175)

Second best odds behind Chicago (+160) and right ahead of GB (+225) with Detroit's odds as far away as Pluto (+1300). On paper its fair to say this is the most well rounded roster in the division. Bears have the best defense, GB probably has the best offense going into the year, but the Vikings are 2nd on each side respectively.

The Vikings IF list...

IF Cook can stay healthy this offense is going to be VERY dynamic, like best WR duo and top 5 RB dynamic.

IF Cousins can beat good teams and win in prime time games (which he has never done in his career and has shown no signs whatsoever of changing) this team could be a legit Super Bowl contender like so many thought last year.

IF the defense can play more like they did 2 years ago (15 PPG against #1 NFL) versus last year (21 PPG average) it changes the landscape of the team up North.

IF our kickers can actually make pivotal kicks (which has never happened in this franchises history and most likely never will) they can win the division and maybe the NFC.

IF those happen the Vikings win the North, 12-4 record, then let us down and break what is left of our hearts.

NFC SOUTH- FALCONS (+320)

This is all about the odds. Saints -160 is fair, and for a team that was 1 fluky play away from being in the Super Bowl, its not to steep of a price to pay for a favorite. But I love what the Falcons can do and have done recently. It was only 2 years ago the Saints were a sub .500 team and the Falcons won the division behind a MVP season courtesy Matty Ice. Saints go Brees-Kamara-Thomas, Falcons run Ryan-Freeman-Julio... The Falcons own one of the best O-Lines in the NFL getting pro-bowl center Alex Mack back, signed Carpenter away from the Jets who whales, and have coveted lineman from last years draft Lindstrom out of BC flanking Mack's other side. This offense is going to be elite, and the defense is back to being healthy with All-Pro linebacker Deion Jones back, Beasley is fully healthy at backer and Keanu Neal is good to go as well. This is a damn good roster with a very legitimate coaching staff- at 3/1 I am IN.

OVER/UNDERS

Bears O 9.5 (+120)

#1 Defense last year and they return almost everyone besides the safety Amos. Really easy schedule last year in route to a 12-4 record, this year it gets tougher. I like Robinson/Miller/Cohen/Montgomery as great pieces at the skill positions to help Mitch Trubinsky. Is Mitch like a Ryan Tannehill? Ponder?! Luck(ish)? I still have no idea who he is, if they beat this over HE WILL BE A LEGEND.

Tough (non-conference) Games Include

(7) vs Saints

(8) vs Chargers

(9) at Eagles

(11) at Rams

(14) vs Cowboys

(16) vs Chiefs

That's 6 games versus teams that made the playoffs last year (plus 4 vs. the Packers and Vikings). But if you look closely 4 of those games are at home. Lets say the Bears split versus the Vikings and Pack (2 wins) win 4 of 6 "tough" non- conference games (4+2=6) Then games against Denver, Washington, Oakland, Detroit, Giants (5 games) they ought to win 4 of those (6+4=10) WE GET TO 10 WINS. Mix and match anyway you like, this defense is to good not to go double digits.

Ravens O 8.5 (-110)

8-8 Last year and the team has gotten better plus the schedule is far easier. They play the AFC East which provides the easiest 3 wins in the league.

Cake walk games

Miami-Arizona-Cincinnati (2x)-49ers-Buffalo-Jets THATS 7 games versus literally the 6 worst teams entering the season. Lets say they win 6 of them as they should. That means they need 3 wins against..

(3) @ Chiefs

(4) vs Browns

(5) @ Pitt

(7) @ Seattle

(9) vs NE

(11) vs Houston

(12) @ Rams

(16) @ Browns

(17) vs Pitt

4 of those 9 games at home, THEY LITERALLY JUST NEED TO WIN 3 OF THEM. Not sure how this is even odds, I'm cashing in and so should you. Did I also mention they allowed the least YPG last year? YA

Lions U 6.5 (+105) ****

LOCK IT IN

6 games vs Bears-Vikings-Packers

Non-Conf includes Chargers-Eagles-Chiefs-Dallas

Lets say they go 3-10 in those games.

They would then have to win 4 of 6 against..

(1) @ Cardinals

(8) vs Giants

(9) @ Oakland

(12) @ Redskins

(15) vs Buccaneers

(16) @ Denver

No way, TAKE THE UNDER.

Rams O 10.5 (+120)

See, this is slightly a hedge, but I think you either win the Seattle +325 (division) or this Rams +120 over- If you bet one I would highly suggest betting the other. Not breaking down a schedule here, this team won 13 last year and if they stay healthy they are going to win atleast 11. Pending Injuries (as always) I think is a pretty solid lock even though they have a tougher schedule.

Saints O 10.5 (+130)

See above - Seattle + Falcons.

49ers U 8 (-105)

Am I missing something? This team was 2-14 last year, their QB1 has 8 starts over the last TWO YEARS and has a TD/INT of 12/8... I will say their record doesn't up with the numbers on paper, middle of the pack in both yards gained offensively and allowed defensively- they had bad game "Luck". So they (odds makers) expect some regression to the norm- QB healthy, and another year experience under Shanahan, and some FA guys to make the team better... This team has some players, 2 good tackles in the vet Staley and and 2nd year RT McGlinchey (Notre Dame Fame)- they signed Coleman for RB1 duties plus the feisty Breida already present. There receivers are terrible and the QB has to show he isn't.. On D they have an old but savvy Richard Sherman, Dee Ford and Buckner on the line together = an above average unit, but the backers are bad and they have almost 0 depth in the secondary. You have to be pretty damn good to win 9 games, I think this is a 7-9 team AT BEST and in that case were still winners.

Chiefs O 10.5 (-145)

Insert FREE MONEY.

PLAYER PROPS

NFL Leaders

Receiving TD's

Hopkins +750

Kelce +900

Odell +1100

Rush TD

Barkley +800

Conner +1500

Carson +2400

D. Johnson +2500

Pass Yards- Stay Away

Pass TD's- Stay Away

Sacks- Stay Away

THANK YOU so much if your still locked into this. We will have weekly bet guides coming out on Fridays! Stay tuned, let me know what ya think--